Who's betting on “Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 79% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $40K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.4K by 62 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 79% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
Who holds it
62 wallets hold a position worth $3.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $10 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,261 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is vinii, with $2.0K on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $60
- Holders' win rate
- 45%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$60 on it
- 1Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$10−$485K lifetime
- 2smellyEllie50% won of 1,984 · whale$7+$106K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$6+$27K lifetime
- 4spartatrading44% won of 1,291 · whale$5+$27K lifetime
- 5planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$5+$132K lifetime
No$3.3K on it
- 1vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$2.0K+$170K lifetime
- 2SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,620$589−$9.0K lifetime
- 3Putniy111100% won of 5$295+$23 lifetime
- 4romeinzc82% won of 206 · balanced$252+$2.2K lifetime
- 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$48−$20K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
20 more- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$141K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: No
- Steve Witkoff$112K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani$110K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Jared Kushner$103K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: No
- J.D. Vance$98K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: No
- Ishaq Dar$95K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Rafael Grossi$85K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Masoud Pezeshkian$83K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money split
- Donald Trump$81K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi$81K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi$68K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$65K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Kazem Gharibabadi$62K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Nick Stewart$56K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Vahidi$43K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Mojtaba Khamenei$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Pete Hegseth$29K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Abbas Araghchi$23K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
- Esmail Qaani$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$112K vol. · ClosedYes 98%No 2%Smart money split
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- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
62 wallets hold a position worth $3.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $10 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,261 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is vinii, with $2.0K on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 16 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.