Who's betting on Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31??
Smart money backs Kazem Gharibabadi: 85% of the money on Yes is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of No. The price favours Abbas Araghchi at 41%.
- Markets
- 21 20 still open
- Traded
- $1.5M across the event
- Favourite
- 41% Abbas Araghchi
- Smart money pick
- 85% Kazem Gharibabadi
What the money says
The odds
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Yes 30% · Steve Witkoff Yes 40% · Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani Yes 40% · Jared Kushner Yes 39% · J.D. Vance Yes 32%.
The smart money
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: smart money on No · Steve Witkoff: smart money on No · Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani: smart money on Yes · Jared Kushner: smart money on No · J.D. Vance: smart money on No.
Every market in this event
the odds and where the profitable wallets sit on each- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$141K vol.Yes 30%No 71%Smart money: No
- Steve Witkoff$113K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani$110K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Jared Kushner$103K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money: No
- J.D. Vance$98K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
- Ishaq Dar$95K vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
- Rafael Grossi$86K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money split
- Masoud Pezeshkian$83K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money split
- Donald Trump$81K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi$81K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi$68K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$65K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Kazem Gharibabadi$62K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Nick Stewart$56K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Vahidi$43K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Salman$40K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Mojtaba Khamenei$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Pete Hegseth$29K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Abbas Araghchi$23K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money split
- Esmail Qaani$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$112K vol. · ClosedYes 98%No 2%Smart money split
Follow the smart money on Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?, as it happens.
Questions
Who is betting on Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31??
Polkyo scores every holder of the 21 markets in this event by their track record. The biggest: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Yes 30%, smart money on No; Steve Witkoff Yes 40%, smart money on No; Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani Yes 40%, smart money on Yes; Jared Kushner Yes 39%, smart money on No; J.D. Vance Yes 32%, smart money on No.
What are the Polymarket odds for Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31??
The biggest: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf Yes 30%, smart money on No; Steve Witkoff Yes 40%, smart money on No; Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani Yes 40%, smart money on Yes; Jared Kushner Yes 39%, smart money on No; J.D. Vance Yes 32%, smart money on No.
What is smart money share?
The part of a side's money held by wallets that are in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered the market.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.