Who's betting on “Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $23K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 67 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 31 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 42¢ and No at 59¢, a 59% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
Who holds it
67 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $537 on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE4211, with $849 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 208 markets (63% won).
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $2.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$537+$1.5M lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$415+$313K lifetime
- 3SakuraDevil75% won of 294 · whale$265+$9.4K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$103+$255K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$55+$334K lifetime
No$2.3K on it
- 10x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE421163% won of 208 · balanced$849+$6.5K lifetime
- 288111260% won of 1,119 · whale$519+$450K lifetime
- 30x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks1374% won of 303 · balanced$205+$11K lifetime
- 4dylanatexe90% won of 21$163+$287 lifetime
- 598Ddd05Cde45d05C4fC06f4093759FFDDFSFFSDDVF62% won of 216 · balanced$148+$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
20 more- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf$141K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: No
- Steve Witkoff$112K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani$110K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Jared Kushner$103K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: No
- J.D. Vance$98K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: No
- Ishaq Dar$95K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Rafael Grossi$85K vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money split
- Masoud Pezeshkian$83K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money split
- Donald Trump$81K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi$81K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi$68K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$65K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Kazem Gharibabadi$62K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Nick Stewart$56K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Vahidi$43K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Salman$40K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Mojtaba Khamenei$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Pete Hegseth$29K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Esmail Qaani$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$112K vol. · ClosedYes 98%No 2%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
67 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is Car, with $537 on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is 0x24321322b33abD6850aC01b7EDE4211, with $849 on it, $6.5K lifetime profit over 208 markets (63% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 42¢ and No at 59¢, a 59% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.