Who's betting on “Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $141K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.4K by 86 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 57% 51 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 35 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
57% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
Who holds it
86 wallets hold a position worth $3.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758, with $254 on it, $8.4K lifetime loss over 827 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $1.9K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $106 on No.
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $1.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 35
- Money on it
- $2.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 1 · $106
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.0K on it
- 10x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$254−$8.4K lifetime
- 2HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$180+$325K lifetime
- 3BikesAreTheBikes65% won of 1,351 · whale$106+$101K lifetime
- 4acc4202049% won of 865 · whale$87+$12K lifetime
- 5smellyEllie50% won of 1,984 · whale$73+$106K lifetime
No$2.4K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$1.9K+$313K lifetime
- 2JokerTheClown67% won of 1,703 · sniper$106+$95K lifetime
- 3kanhaoleaha83% won of 212 · balanced$79+$209 lifetime
- 4Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$71+$154K lifetime
- 5pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$53−$320K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
20 more- Steve Witkoff$113K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani$110K vol.Yes 40%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Jared Kushner$103K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money: No
- J.D. Vance$98K vol.Yes 32%No 68%Smart money: No
- Ishaq Dar$95K vol.Yes 21%No 80%Smart money split
- Rafael Grossi$86K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money split
- Masoud Pezeshkian$83K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money split
- Donald Trump$81K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi$81K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- Majid Takht-Ravanchi$68K vol.Yes 33%No 68%Smart money: No
- Marco Rubio$65K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Kazem Gharibabadi$62K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- Nick Stewart$56K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- Ahmad Vahidi$43K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Mohammed bin Salman$40K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Mojtaba Khamenei$32K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Pete Hegseth$29K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Abbas Araghchi$23K vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money split
- Esmail Qaani$20K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?$112K vol. · ClosedYes 98%No 2%Smart money split
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
86 wallets hold a position worth $3.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 86 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758, with $254 on it, $8.4K lifetime loss over 827 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $1.9K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $141K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 38 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.