Who's betting on “Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 71% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $19K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.9K by 92 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 58 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 33 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points.
Who holds it
92 wallets hold a position worth $2.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 91 of them. The largest Yes holder is E32LowRksnd98uh18bd1dd12d12t, with $4 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 275 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is OnlyPhan, with $826 on it, $4.3K lifetime profit over 464 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $15
- Holders' win rate
- 43%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$15 on it
- 1E32LowRksnd98uh18bd1dd12d12t6% won of 275 · noise$4+$1.8K lifetime
- 2dpnd39% won of 240 · noise$2+$29K lifetime
- 3youtube-trader25% won of 8,026$2−$6.5K lifetime
- 473f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.95% won of 698 · grinder$1+$1.3K lifetime
- 5ivanzolo200434% won of 158$1−$95 lifetime
No$2.9K on it
- 1OnlyPhan65% won of 464 · balanced$826+$4.3K lifetime
- 2Sdorica81% won of 242$554−$1.4K lifetime
- 3Mr.Frog🐸62% won of 302 · whale$370+$4.7K lifetime
- 4RATHMA471% won of 627$200−$7.6K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,066$108−$49K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?"?
92 wallets hold a position worth $2.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 91 of them. The largest Yes holder is E32LowRksnd98uh18bd1dd12d12t, with $4 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 275 markets (6% won). The largest No holder is OnlyPhan, with $826 on it, $4.3K lifetime profit over 464 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $19K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.