Who's betting on “Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 75% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 5 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $24K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.0K by 126 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 75% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 70% 59 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 20¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
75% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split.
Who holds it
126 wallets hold a position worth $7.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 125 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $3.0K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is rocky42025, with $188 on it, $220 lifetime profit over 1,123 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $6.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $664
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.3K on it
- 1gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$3.0K+$6.7K lifetime
- 20xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-176094584678764% won of 171 · balanced$918+$10K lifetime
- 3lyl88854% won of 175$665−$1.3K lifetime
- 40xe172412ca65dD142Ff035630cc2945ADeC8D248A-176474751677132% won of 102$228−$346 lifetime
- 5ms191065% won of 302 · balanced$223+$2.4K lifetime
No$664 on it
- 1rocky4202551% won of 1,123 · whale$188+$220 lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$89+$254K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 87,178 · noise$53+$829K lifetime
- 4SpringlyFawl34% won of 14,873 · noise$44+$27K lifetime
- 5VerilyWinningly38% won of 3,164 · noise$43+$44K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
2 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?"?
126 wallets hold a position worth $7.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 125 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $3.0K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is rocky42025, with $188 on it, $220 lifetime profit over 1,123 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 81¢ and No at 20¢, an 81% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
75% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.