Who's betting on “Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 62% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 6 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.7K by 67 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 56% 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 56% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points.
Who holds it
67 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $210 on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787, with $124 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 171 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $992
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $737
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$992 on it
- 1gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$210+$6.7K lifetime
- 2donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$182+$829K lifetime
- 3Numitus199449% won of 15,720$150−$28K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$91+$255K lifetime
- 5JosephIsGreat39% won of 146$46−$8.6K lifetime
No$737 on it
- 10xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-176094584678764% won of 171 · balanced$124+$10K lifetime
- 20xa2bF3B2CED564Ce53d9FB2690b210D3aE61295D3-177394505552181% won of 397 · balanced$85+$604 lifetime
- 3RATHMA471% won of 627$82−$7.6K lifetime
- 40x33f1f92aa753476d45b74f7aEdA0d83722C52Bd0-176986171721069% won of 242$79−$643 lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,121$66−$48K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Claude go down on __ days in October?
2 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?"?
67 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 67 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $210 on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-1760945846787, with $124 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 171 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 19¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 56% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 6 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.