Who's betting on “Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 10 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $239K traded all time
- Held now
- $63K by 227 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 131 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 96 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $239K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
227 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 227 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rumpelstiltskin, with $2.0K on it, $26K lifetime profit over 195 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is M2sx92kljs42, with $8.5K on it, $61K lifetime profit over 517 markets (78% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $799 on No.
- Holders
- 131
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $50K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 1 · $799
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$14K on it
- 1Rumpelstiltskin77% won of 195 · balanced$2.0K+$26K lifetime
- 2uldon33no record yet$1.1K−$5 lifetime
- 3Optimus-55% won of 330 · whale$1.1K+$121K lifetime
- 4badonde1100% won of 3$1.0K+$1.5K lifetime
- 5seal759% won of 846 · whale$1.0K+$132K lifetime
No$50K on it
- 1M2sx92kljs4278% won of 517 · whale$8.5K+$61K lifetime
- 2LJa7io23MCv954j87% won of 134 · whale$4.5K+$2.6K lifetime
- 3Gdub70% won of 1,014$4.2K−$301 lifetime
- 4enrico-vasaio65% won of 1,070 · whale$4.0K+$23K lifetime
- 5purplegatto73% won of 3,479$3.2K−$1.9M lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
2 more- December 31, 2027$133K vol.Yes 65%No 36%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$146K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?"?
227 wallets hold a position worth $63K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 227 of them. The largest Yes holder is Rumpelstiltskin, with $2.0K on it, $26K lifetime profit over 195 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is M2sx92kljs42, with $8.5K on it, $61K lifetime profit over 517 markets (78% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $239K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.