Who's betting on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?”?
Tech · $59K volume · Ends February 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
48% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
118 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $784 on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,056 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is jadebasilisk, with $2.0K on it, $40K lifetime profit over 181 markets (55% won).
- Smart money share
- 48% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $3.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 92% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | $784 | -$2.9M | 72% of 27,056 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $280 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| 0xa78342dA292Ad314cC972863818F414723330a48-1776782510398balanced | $213 | +$768 | 49% of 151 |
| cigarettes | $180 | -$10K | 46% of 42,353 |
| 0x9e24bD0ebC6A423C43cf600E7bF1170A867B7e71-1775632553699balanced | $179 | +$2.2K | 80% of 1,048 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| jadebasiliskwhale | $2.0K | +$40K | 55% of 181 |
| aliaspopeyewhale | $1.6K | +$897 | 50% of 316 |
| DontTrustMebalanced | $1.2K | +$9.7K | 87% of 121 |
| MaxEntnoise | $1.1K | +$3.5K | 41% of 351 |
| Utoyabalanced | $770 | +$7.1K | 95% of 37 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
- December 31, 2026$322K vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$73K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$67K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money split
- February 28, 2027$34K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$416K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? →
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- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?"?
118 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 118 of them. The largest Yes holder is neutralwave23, with $784 on it, $2.9M lifetime loss over 27,056 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is jadebasilisk, with $2.0K on it, $40K lifetime profit over 181 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by January 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $59K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.