Who's betting on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?”?
Tech · $322K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $322K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
50% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
441 wallets hold a position worth $79K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 438 of them. The largest Yes holder is Optimus-, with $1.5K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 314 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is rkreddyzoomin, with $4.7K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 74 markets (76% won).
- Smart money share
- 50% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 182
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 259
- Money on it
- $66K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus-whale | $1.5K | +$120K | 56% of 314 |
| green9balanced | $1.4K | +$7.9K | 74% of 142 |
| Overland | $1.1K | -$876 | 39% of 23 |
| troimwhale | $825 | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| DualDeltanoise | $738 | +$41K | 34% of 207 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| rkreddyzoominbalanced | $4.7K | +$1.0K | 76% of 74 |
| Folletinwhale | $3.8K | +$73K | 73% of 670 |
| MaxEntnoise | $3.4K | +$3.5K | 41% of 351 |
| Utoyabalanced | $3.3K | +$7.1K | 95% of 37 |
| COOLBOY | $2.7K | -$7.1K | 83% of 98 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
- June 30, 2027$73K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$67K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money split
- January 31, 2027$59K vol.Yes 23%No 77%Smart money: No
- February 28, 2027$34K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$416K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? →
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$765K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?"?
441 wallets hold a position worth $79K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 438 of them. The largest Yes holder is Optimus-, with $1.5K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 314 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is rkreddyzoomin, with $4.7K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 74 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $322K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
50% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.