Who's betting on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?”?
Tech · $67K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
84% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
161 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 160 of them. The largest Yes holder is Optimus-, with $3.1K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 314 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is DerDon, with $2.1K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 1,174 markets (55% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.6K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 84% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $18K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.6K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 87% ▼ 5 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $9.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 51%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus-whale | $3.1K | +$120K | 56% of 314 |
| Stonktraderwhale | $2.2K | +$94K | 94% of 234 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13balanced | $1.9K | +$11K | 74% of 296 |
| Fulguratorsniper | $1.6K | +$21K | 89% of 97 |
| 0x91c3…409f | $1.4K | +$15K | 42% of 328 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| DerDonwhale | $2.1K | +$97K | 55% of 1,174 |
| Meckywhale | $1.4K | +$96K | 48% of 393 |
| jadebasiliskwhale | $1.2K | +$40K | 55% of 181 |
| linsen | $990 | +$489 | 100% of 4 |
| aka41noise | $796 | +$6.1K | 31% of 200 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
- December 31, 2026$322K vol.Yes 17%No 84%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$73K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: No
- January 31, 2027$59K vol.Yes 23%No 77%Smart money: No
- February 28, 2027$35K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- September 30, 2026$416K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?"?
161 wallets hold a position worth $27K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 160 of them. The largest Yes holder is Optimus-, with $3.1K on it, $120K lifetime profit over 314 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is DerDon, with $2.1K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 1,174 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $67K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.