Who's betting on “Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?”?
Geopolitics · $90K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 68¢ and No at 33¢, a 68% implied chance of Yes. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
65% of the money on Yes and 37% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points.
35 wallets hold a position worth $651 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is Raskell, with $168 on it, $65K lifetime profit over 380 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is AJSV, with $77 on it, $218K lifetime profit over 102,753 markets (41% won).
- Smart money share
- 65% ▲ 28 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $440
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 37% ▲ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $212
- Holders' winrate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raskellwhale | $168 | +$65K | 62% of 380 |
| K80PRObalanced | $60 | +$393 | 53% of 474 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9noise | $39 | +$6.3K | 40% of 181,292 |
| Haradwaith | $38 | -$334K | 51% of 45,794 |
| Carabao | $29 | -$1.4K | 51% of 2,523 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJSVwhale | $77 | +$218K | 41% of 102,753 |
| chessplayer | $33 | -$18K | 70% of 1,218 |
| PMWolf | $22 | -$474 | 40% of 257 |
| youtube-trader | $13 | -$6.4K | 24% of 7,444 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | $12 | -$318K | 37% of 8,921 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- October 29$89K vol.Yes 70%No 30%Smart money: Yes
- October 12$64K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: No
- October 8$63K vol.Yes 83%No 17%Smart money: No
- October 6$54K vol.Yes 84%No 16%Smart money: No
- October 11$39K vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- October 23$12K vol.Yes 74%No 26%Smart money: Yes
- October 1$454K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Who's betting on Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? →
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
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- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: No
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?"?
35 wallets hold a position worth $651 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is Raskell, with $168 on it, $65K lifetime profit over 380 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is AJSV, with $77 on it, $218K lifetime profit over 102,753 markets (41% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 68¢ and No at 33¢, a 68% implied chance of Yes. $90K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 37% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.