Who's betting on “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?”?
Tech · $340K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $340K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
79% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
356 wallets hold a position worth $72K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 350 of them. The largest Yes holder is obeymesubjects, with $4.5K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is poli.monaco, with $14K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 56 markets (68% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $337 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 204
- Money on it
- $21K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $337
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 88% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 152
- Money on it
- $51K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| obeymesubjects | $4.5K | +$14K | 85% of 13 |
| thoodrwhale | $1.9K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| Eowen | $993 | +$3.4K | 89% of 9 |
| Loathsome-Investigation | $965 | +$3.1K | 85% of 13 |
| balthazarwhale | $911 | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| poli.monacobalanced | $14K | +$28K | 68% of 56 |
| KiernanMeisterwhale | $5.7K | +$205K | 47% of 2,106 |
| troimwhale | $4.9K | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| BigMackyGwhale | $2.9K | +$74K | 71% of 221 |
| WEN-ALPHAwhale | $2.7K | +$25K | 49% of 247 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
- October 24$142K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- October 29$38K vol.Yes 26%No 74%Smart money split
- December 31$35K vol.Yes 94%No 6%Smart money: Yes
- October 30$12K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- October 26$11K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- October 27$11K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- October 17$71K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 22$55K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 14$48K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 21$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 10$37K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 9$29K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 12$21K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 15$18K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 8$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 23$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 16$13K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$764K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?"?
356 wallets hold a position worth $72K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 350 of them. The largest Yes holder is obeymesubjects, with $4.5K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is poli.monaco, with $14K on it, $28K lifetime profit over 56 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $340K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 5 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.