Who's betting on “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?”?
Tech · $35K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
86% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
115 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 112 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xef97…ab2c, with $3.1K on it, $568 lifetime profit over 19 markets (95% won). The largest No holder is Danx1204, with $199 on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 10 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 86% ▲ 4 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 58%
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $853
- Holders' winrate
- 55%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xef97…ab2c | $3.1K | +$568 | 95% of 19 |
| Nostrafakusbalanced | $1.8K | +$7.5K | 92% of 251 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdatewhale | $1.6K | +$104K | 67% of 1,064 |
| Loathsome-Investigation | $1.1K | +$3.1K | 85% of 13 |
| tongoGbalanced | $473 | +$0 | 65% of 37 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danx1204 | $199 | -$2.3K | 60% of 10 |
| KiernanMeisterwhale | $195 | +$205K | 47% of 2,106 |
| poli.monacobalanced | $65 | +$29K | 68% of 57 |
| WorkingIsBad | $57 | +$133 | 67% of 12 |
| AJSVwhale | $56 | +$219K | 41% of 103,940 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
- October 31$343K vol.Yes 36%No 64%Smart money split
- October 24$143K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- October 29$38K vol.Yes 31%No 69%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$14K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- October 30$14K vol.Yes 34%No 66%Smart money: No
- October 26$13K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- October 17$71K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 22$55K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 14$48K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 21$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 10$37K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 9$29K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 12$21K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 15$18K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 8$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 23$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 16$13K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$768K vol.Yes 89%No 11%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$738K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?"?
115 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 112 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xef97…ab2c, with $3.1K on it, $568 lifetime profit over 19 markets (95% won). The largest No holder is Danx1204, with $199 on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 10 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $35K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
86% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 29 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 25 points. A week ago, Yes by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.