Who's betting on “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?”?
Tech · $143K volume · Ends October 25, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $143K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 25, 2026.
73% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
370 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 368 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136, with $35 on it, $137 lifetime profit over 404 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is KiernanMeister, with $4.6K on it, $205K lifetime profit over 2,106 markets (47% won).
- Smart money share
- 73% ▲ 19 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 203
- Money on it
- $198
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 84%
- Holders
- 167
- Money on it
- $28K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136balanced | $35 | +$137 | 74% of 404 |
| dublyash2 | $34 | +$4.6K | 70% of 10 |
| cigarettes | $23 | -$2.8K | 46% of 42,586 |
| lukesky1 | $10 | -$300 | - |
| Contentious-Dinnerdatewhale | $9 | +$104K | 67% of 1,064 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeisterwhale | $4.6K | +$205K | 47% of 2,106 |
| rewardbotswhale | $3.6K | +$75K | 57% of 344 |
| eCashwhale | $3.2K | +$288K | 70% of 654 |
| The-Jokerwhale | $2.7K | +$133K | 64% of 1,272 |
| troimwhale | $993 | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
- October 31$340K vol.Yes 30%No 70%Smart money: No
- October 29$38K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money split
- December 31$35K vol.Yes 94%No 6%Smart money: Yes
- October 27$13K vol.Yes 23%No 77%Smart money: Yes
- October 30$12K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: Yes
- October 26$12K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- October 17$71K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 22$55K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 14$48K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
- October 21$43K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 10$37K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 9$29K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 12$21K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 15$18K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 8$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 23$14K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- October 16$13K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money split
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$888K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$766K vol.Yes 90%No 10%Smart money: Yes
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$735K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$430K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$408K vol.Yes 50%No 51%Smart money: Yes
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$401K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?"?
370 wallets hold a position worth $28K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 368 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x36dAfd0ed99D902F8bDfe9e090ecDc48b053907B-1762688421136, with $35 on it, $137 lifetime profit over 404 markets (74% won). The largest No holder is KiernanMeister, with $4.6K on it, $205K lifetime profit over 2,106 markets (47% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $143K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 25, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 11 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 25, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.