Who's betting on “Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 62 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 93% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
93% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
62 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hakei., with $640 on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,028 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is TronOG, with $8.4K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 417 markets (83% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $40 on Yes.
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $844
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $40
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $10.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 82%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$844 on it
- 1Hakei.71% won of 1,028 · whale$640+$91K lifetime
- 2Friday29% won of 302 · noise$50+$42K lifetime
- 3groth77% won of 495 · sniper$40+$146K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,324 · noise$18+$254K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$17−$378K lifetime
No$10.0K on it
- 1TronOG83% won of 417 · whale$8.4K+$60K lifetime
- 2Hellboy-winner79% won of 226 · balanced$382+$828 lifetime
- 3Mfiroozino record yet$373+$0 lifetime
- 4aliiz78% won of 1,248 · balanced$294+$8.0K lifetime
- 50xd8c2…105e74% won of 57 · balanced$186+$176 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in USD x Iranian rials End of December?
4 more- 2.0 - 2.5M$28K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: No
- 3.0 - 3.5M$28K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money split
- 2.5 - 3.0M$25K vol.Yes 34%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- 3.5 - 4.0M$16K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: Yes
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?"?
62 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is Hakei., with $640 on it, $91K lifetime profit over 1,028 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is TronOG, with $8.4K on it, $60K lifetime profit over 417 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.