Who's betting on “Will Trump deport less than 200k people?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 21 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $757 by 58 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 73% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
The smart money
73% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
Who holds it
58 wallets hold a position worth $757 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is cakedefender, with $16 on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 28 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $604 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $96
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $661
- Holders' win rate
- 92%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$96 on it
- 1cakedefender54% won of 28 · noise$16+$3.5K lifetime
- 2Siziriv63% won of 222 · whale$16+$506K lifetime
- 30x19b87FaD1d000FBcBB8253513FdeB50a36F30C6C-177452262299243% won of 30$13−$292 lifetime
- 40xc9a90290332fa3ea9885f1e2ce466e6baf0c29381% won of 217 · whale$13+$21K lifetime
- 5xlefgerx84% won of 132 · whale$11+$4.8K lifetime
No$661 on it
- 10x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$604+$29K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,306$20−$51K lifetime
- 3HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$10+$325K lifetime
- 40x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$8−$8.4K lifetime
- 50x05dB433D691701B7d62F641B6Bf2797c1A413ebf-176026405786997% won of 90$5+$4 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
4 more- 700-800k$42K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 300-400k$15K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money split
- 800-900k$14K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 200-300k$10K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Trump deport less than 200k people?"?
58 wallets hold a position worth $757 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 58 of them. The largest Yes holder is cakedefender, with $16 on it, $3.5K lifetime profit over 28 markets (54% won). The largest No holder is 0x8931…a90c, with $604 on it, $29K lifetime profit over 609 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Trump deport less than 200k people?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 21 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 21 points. A week ago, No by 16 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.