Who's betting on “Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $21K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 54 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 98% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 23 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
98% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
54 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wickier, with $1.5K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Mr-Krabs, with $6.6K on it, $49K lifetime profit over 872 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $8.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 1Wickier56% won of 1,003 · whale$1.5K+$1.2M lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$136+$61K lifetime
- 3tinman279% won of 401 · whale$70+$14K lifetime
- 42B9S27% won of 14,516 · noise$67+$97K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$25+$254K lifetime
No$8.8K on it
- 1Mr-Krabs75% won of 872 · whale$6.6K+$49K lifetime
- 20x34dc80F95407Cd8E02be6cd7437027547c4dd280-177187022284172% won of 197 · balanced$989+$962 lifetime
- 3Te0n261% won of 836 · whale$635+$43K lifetime
- 4alexludoman35% won of 202$277−$2.2K lifetime
- 5Codm9630% won of 125 · noise$97+$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
2 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 96%No 4%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.4M vol.Yes 37%No 63%Smart money: Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
54 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 54 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wickier, with $1.5K on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 1,003 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is Mr-Krabs, with $6.6K on it, $49K lifetime profit over 872 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 82¢, an 82% implied chance of No. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.