Who's betting on “Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $197 by 29 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 7 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 72% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
Who holds it
29 wallets hold a position worth $197 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is acal, with $3 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 520 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is GironaNite, with $60 on it, $6.1K lifetime profit over 195 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $9
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $189
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$9 on it
- 1acal79% won of 520 · whale$3+$15K lifetime
- 2BackingFavesEsports95% won of 401$2−$38 lifetime
- 3b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$2+$22K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,324 · noise$1+$254K lifetime
- 5romanew-1-new62% won of 1,330 · balanced$1+$3.0K lifetime
No$189 on it
- 1GironaNite92% won of 195 · balanced$60+$6.1K lifetime
- 2Lbr974% won of 102 · balanced$38+$390 lifetime
- 3nedsta88% won of 469 · whale$35+$23K lifetime
- 4sfs2279% won of 138$5−$9 lifetime
- 5dshu79% won of 126$4−$9 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
2 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
29 wallets hold a position worth $197 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is acal, with $3 on it, $15K lifetime profit over 520 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is GironaNite, with $60 on it, $6.1K lifetime profit over 195 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.