Who's betting on “Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 64 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $218 by 47 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 99% 8 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 36% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
99% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 64 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 67 points. A week ago, Yes by 67 points.
Who holds it
47 wallets hold a position worth $218 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD., with $15 on it, $22K lifetime profit over 3,389 markets (98% won). The largest No holder is agreebera, with $44 on it, $106 lifetime loss over 211 markets (91% won).
- Holders
- 8
- Money on it
- $25
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $193
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$25 on it
- 1b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,389 · whale$15+$22K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$7+$254K lifetime
- 30x45e6Df48cCF5d1773D509C97052F819690cEC078-178211120799855% won of 2,232 · balanced$1+$2.1K lifetime
- 4frozenriver78% won of 247 · whale$1+$227K lifetime
- 50x489A6942253203fD0c5e786c230419a02840FfF2-178201105632951% won of 980 · balanced$1+$1.3K lifetime
No$193 on it
- 1agreebera91% won of 211$44−$106 lifetime
- 2Lbr974% won of 102 · balanced$35+$390 lifetime
- 3Cassandra-Unchained88% won of 165$19+$311 lifetime
- 4geonb98% won of 59$9+$9 lifetime
- 5zhuxioming73% won of 126$6−$12 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
2 moreOther big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 96%No 4%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.4M vol.Yes 37%No 63%Smart money: Yes
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
47 wallets hold a position worth $218 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD., with $15 on it, $22K lifetime profit over 3,389 markets (98% won). The largest No holder is agreebera, with $44 on it, $106 lifetime loss over 211 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
99% of the money on Yes and 36% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 64 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 67 points. A week ago, Yes by 67 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.