Who's betting on “Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $42K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.2K by 70 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 33 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 85% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
70 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876, with $208 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 284 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is balthazar, with $853 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,414 markets (53% won).
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $648
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$648 on it
- 10x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-177846773587665% won of 284 · whale$208+$27K lifetime
- 2cat676770% won of 212 · whale$174+$9.5K lifetime
- 3troim66% won of 819 · whale$105+$90K lifetime
- 4Milksheen61% won of 92$54−$13K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$47+$255K lifetime
No$3.5K on it
- 1balthazar53% won of 52,414 · whale$853+$1.2M lifetime
- 2Olcan70% won of 645 · whale$646+$45K lifetime
- 3frozenriver78% won of 247 · whale$528+$227K lifetime
- 4NeonVector86% won of 14$295−$2.0K lifetime
- 5peter23978455% won of 377 · whale$286+$8.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?
70 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876, with $208 on it, $27K lifetime profit over 284 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is balthazar, with $853 on it, $1.2M lifetime profit over 52,414 markets (53% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $42K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.