Who's betting on “Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $74K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 95 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 90% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 54 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 4, 2026 and resolved Yes. $74K has been traded on it.
The smart money
90% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
95 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 91 of them.
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
- Holders
- 55
- Money on it
- $6
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
12 more- October 20$27K vol.Yes 86%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- October 29$17K vol.Yes 84%No 16%Smart money: Yes
- October 17$159K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 16$81K vol. · ClosedYes 97%No 3%Smart money: No
- October 12$76K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 18$43K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 21$38K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 19$30K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 22$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 23$22K vol. · ClosedYes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- October 14$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 24$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?"?
95 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 91 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?"?
This market closed on October 4, 2026 and resolved Yes. $74K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 4, 2026 and resolved Yes. $74K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.