Who's betting on “Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 47 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $22K by 69 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 95% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 48% 29 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 21, 2026.
The smart money
95% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
Who holds it
69 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them.
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $3.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
12 more- October 29$17K vol.Yes 84%No 16%Smart money: Yes
- October 17$159K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- October 16$81K vol. · ClosedYes 97%No 3%Smart money: No
- October 12$76K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 4$74K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 18$43K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 21$38K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- October 19$30K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- October 22$25K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 23$22K vol. · ClosedYes 95%No 6%Smart money: No
- October 14$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- October 24$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?"?
69 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 69 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 21, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 47 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 47 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 21, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.