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Who's betting on “Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?”?

Geopolitics$16K traded78 holdersEnds October 30, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
85%Yes🧠 smart money
16%No

Smart money leans Yes: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 5 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$16K
traded all time
Held now
$4.5K
by 78 wallets
Smart share · Yes
81%
52 scored holders
Smart share · No
76%
25 scored holders
📈 Open the live signal🔔 Alert me when smart money moves

What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 16¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.

The smart money

81% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split.

Who holds it

78 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1nvoker1, with $1.5K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Gohst, with $336 on it, $298K lifetime profit over 1,056 markets (47% won).

Yes85%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share81% ▲ 1 pts in 24 h
a day ago 80%now 81%
Holders
53
Money on it
$3.8K
Holders' win rate
65%
No16%
Smart money share76% ▼ 3 pts in 24 h
a day ago 79%now 76%
Holders
25
Money on it
$691
Holders' win rate
49%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$3.8K on it

  1. 11nvoker162% won of 1,034 · whale$1.5K+$15K lifetime
  2. 2IRL.hedge39% won of 167$254−$6.3K lifetime
  3. 30x498Fe986AF5Af0425001b4d125e02B4426F3af74-177280818981397% won of 39$183+$143 lifetime
  4. 4Zaratustra58% won of 765 · whale$169+$66K lifetime
  5. 5DumbOracle75% won of 263 · balanced$161+$4.6K lifetime

No$691 on it

  1. 1Gohst47% won of 1,056 · whale$336+$298K lifetime
  2. 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$77+$255K lifetime
  3. 30xB986084A183A218B59E97B2ddF1d3E2da9e04B60-177246445491560% won of 253$51−$679 lifetime
  4. 40xd1A71a19cF70e1f42e5FD1e250CB393006D465d9-178085144697733% won of 6$50−$4.6K lifetime
  5. 5OpenSourceIntel38% won of 379 · noise$32+$37K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?"?

78 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 77 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1nvoker1, with $1.5K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Gohst, with $336 on it, $298K lifetime profit over 1,056 markets (47% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 16¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 30, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

81% of the money on Yes and 76% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on October 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.