Who's betting on “Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 82% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $7.9K by 70 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 56% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 82% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $17K has been traded on it.
The smart money
56% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
Who holds it
70 wallets hold a position worth $7.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them.
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $7.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
3 more- December 31$32K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$30K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- March 31, 2027$15K vol.Yes 59%No 41%Smart money: Yes
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?"?
70 wallets hold a position worth $7.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 70 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?"?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $17K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 28 points. A week ago, No by 26 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $17K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.