Who's betting on “Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 65% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 80 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 65% 47 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 51% 33 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
65% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
Who holds it
80 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is mehanizator, with $375 on it, $6.1K lifetime profit over 530 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $3.5K on it, $69 lifetime loss over 123 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.0K on it
- 1mehanizator42% won of 530 · noise$375+$6.1K lifetime
- 20xf257Abb1F801E94F1f56A7cA91b2294ccd6d9420-177533706756574% won of 23$272−$3.1K lifetime
- 35.6sol31% won of 213$240−$7.2K lifetime
- 4rexcom55% won of 415 · balanced$222+$11K lifetime
- 5leCommissaire55% won of 453 · whale$187+$104K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1anotherpatrick69% won of 123$3.5K−$69 lifetime
- 2NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$2.2K+$11K lifetime
- 3JoeBlack0165% won of 1,023 · whale$1.8K+$89K lifetime
- 4AnonDaveDave53% won of 250$1.1K−$1.3K lifetime
- 5DerDon56% won of 1,234 · whale$420+$95K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
3 more- October 31$30K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- March 31, 2027$15K vol.Yes 59%No 41%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
80 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 80 of them. The largest Yes holder is mehanizator, with $375 on it, $6.1K lifetime profit over 530 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $3.5K on it, $69 lifetime loss over 123 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 84¢, an 84% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 14 points. A week ago, Yes by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.