Who's betting on “Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 95 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.6K by 37 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 99% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 4% 20 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 59¢ and No at 41¢, a 59% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
The smart money
99% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 95 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 94 points. A week ago, Yes by 90 points.
Who holds it
37 wallets hold a position worth $8.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $2.1K on it, $588K lifetime profit over 1,154 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $3.0K on it, $69 lifetime loss over 123 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $5.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.1K on it
- 1elPolloLoco71% won of 1,154 · whale$2.1K+$588K lifetime
- 2NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$1.9K+$11K lifetime
- 3controls81% won of 832 · whale$584+$51K lifetime
- 4-BOB-100% won of 8$86+$459 lifetime
- 5SubashChandraBose73% won of 347 · balanced$77+$18K lifetime
No$3.5K on it
- 1anotherpatrick69% won of 123$3.0K−$69 lifetime
- 2B1zz77% won of 13$233−$1.2K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$171−$378K lifetime
- 4Malganis46% won of 1,721 · whale$55+$2.3K lifetime
- 5Eia59% won of 1,231 · whale$41+$23K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
3 more- December 31$32K vol.Yes 16%No 84%Smart money: Yes
- October 31$30K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$17K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big geopolitics markets
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?$16M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?$5.5M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money split
- NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?$3.5M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$3.5M vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: Yes
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?$1.8M vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?$1.4M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?"?
37 wallets hold a position worth $8.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is elPolloLoco, with $2.1K on it, $588K lifetime profit over 1,154 markets (71% won). The largest No holder is anotherpatrick, with $3.0K on it, $69 lifetime loss over 123 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 59¢ and No at 41¢, a 59% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on April 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
99% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 95 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 94 points. A week ago, Yes by 90 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on April 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.