Who's betting on “Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 45 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $92K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 233 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 35% 145 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 87 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $92K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
35% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
Who holds it
233 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 232 of them. The largest Yes holder is Brovadana, with $258 on it, $8.0K lifetime loss over 138 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $2.0K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,242 markets (48% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on Yes.
- Holders
- 146
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3
- Holders
- 87
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.4K on it
- 1Brovadana41% won of 138$258−$8.0K lifetime
- 2Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$125+$1.5M lifetime
- 3erlichbachmn81% won of 79$113−$9.7K lifetime
- 4burge14646% won of 770$106−$1.7K lifetime
- 5tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$72−$217K lifetime
No$10K on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,242 · whale$2.0K+$203K lifetime
- 20x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675485% won of 13$1.8K+$8.7K lifetime
- 3Sylvester.the.Cat63% won of 145 · whale$1.8K+$25K lifetime
- 4nonkenny9092% won of 1,453 · whale$670+$80K lifetime
- 5Flaky-Ring32% won of 165$515−$11K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
1 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 62%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?"?
233 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 232 of them. The largest Yes holder is Brovadana, with $258 on it, $8.0K lifetime loss over 138 markets (41% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $2.0K on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,242 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $92K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
35% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.