Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 77 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 88% 49 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 33% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
The smart money
88% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 66 points.
Who holds it
77 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $2.3K on it, $288K lifetime profit over 1,507 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $3.4K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
- Holders
- 50
- Money on it
- $6.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $5.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.0K on it
- 1paddaa58% won of 1,507 · whale$2.3K+$288K lifetime
- 2buoys46% won of 1,244 · whale$2.3K+$83K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$307+$819K lifetime
- 4Quarzo50% won of 206$161−$6.4K lifetime
- 50x6f83…609f29% won of 116 · noise$135+$4.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
5 more- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems$59K vol.Yes 25%No 76%Smart money split
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems$339K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps$20K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems$18K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps$15K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
77 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 76 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $2.3K on it, $288K lifetime profit over 1,507 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $3.4K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 69¢, a 69% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 33% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 66 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.