Who's betting on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?”?
Politics · $336K volume · Ends November 5, 2026 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $336K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
64% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
236 wallets hold a position worth $147K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 232 of them. The largest Yes holder is mybot10, with $6.9K on it, $15 lifetime loss over 3 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Snoorrason, with $49K on it, $179K lifetime profit over 309 markets (56% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $91 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.2K on No.
- Smart money share
- 64% ▼ 26 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 147
- Money on it
- $31K
- Holders' winrate
- 58%
- Snipers
- 2 · $91
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 74% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 89
- Money on it
- $116K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.2K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| mybot10 | $6.9K | -$15 | 33% of 3 |
| qizhan1balanced | $3.9K | +$8.4K | 54% of 72 |
| JSG3balanced | $3.0K | +$11K | 65% of 20 |
| The-Jokerwhale | $2.2K | +$146K | 64% of 1,279 |
| buoyswhale | $1.6K | +$84K | 46% of 1,188 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snoorrasonwhale | $49K | +$179K | 56% of 309 |
| fbet | $15K | -$93 | 88% of 16 |
| paddaawhale | $13K | +$286K | 58% of 1,442 |
| anoin123 | $13K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,478 |
| wienerdogwhale | $5.8K | +$21K | 56% of 306 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems$22K vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps$18K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems$17K vol.Yes 5%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps$12K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
236 wallets hold a position worth $147K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 232 of them. The largest Yes holder is mybot10, with $6.9K on it, $15 lifetime loss over 3 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is Snoorrason, with $49K on it, $179K lifetime profit over 309 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $336K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.