Who's betting on “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?”?
Politics · $17K volume · Ends November 5, 2026 · Updated October 26, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
56% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago it was split.
63 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $23 on it, $286K lifetime profit over 1,442 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is TheBasementView, with $346 on it, $0 lifetime profit.
- Smart money share
- 56% ▼ 17 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $131
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 48% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 49%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaawhale | $23 | +$286K | 58% of 1,442 |
| rektalbalanced | $13 | +$10K | 65% of 51 |
| Quarzo | $13 | -$6.1K | 50% of 201 |
| anotherpatrick | $12 | -$373 | 70% of 120 |
| Te0n2whale | $10 | +$43K | 62% of 770 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheBasementView | $346 | +$0 | - |
| 0opj4kuu4xb2 | $164 | -$14K | 47% of 454 |
| Snoorrasonwhale | $163 | +$179K | 56% of 309 |
| prodsetbalanced | $118 | +$999 | 51% of 405 |
| 0xa169…1b73balanced | $116 | +$7.2K | 49% of 1,303 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems$337K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Lula, Eizenkot, Dems$26K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: No
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps$19K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate →
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$52M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
63 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 63 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $23 on it, $286K lifetime profit over 1,442 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is TheBasementView, with $346 on it, $0 lifetime profit.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.