Who's betting on “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?”?
Politics · $26K volume · Ends November 5, 2026 · Updated October 26, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
79% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points.
60 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x13801c62dcf3110b19332d1c4b53dac516557325-1792492508793, with $2.5K on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 135 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $1.7K on it, $325K lifetime profit over 11,735 markets (22% won).
- Smart money share
- 79% ▼ 20 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 32
- Money on it
- $7.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91%
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 45%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x13801c62dcf3110b19332d1c4b53dac516557325-1792492508793balanced | $2.5K | +$2.2K | 59% of 135 |
| snowwhite01 | $1.4K | -$12K | 66% of 145 |
| paddaawhale | $923 | +$286K | 58% of 1,442 |
| 101456balanced | $718 | +$15K | 61% of 269 |
| troimwhale | $388 | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $1.7K | +$325K | 22% of 11,735 |
| puravidawhale | $373 | +$40K | 64% of 1,304 |
| JokerTheClownwhale | $298 | +$57K | 68% of 1,672 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $295 | +$157K | 66% of 1,524 |
| Dondigidinwhale | $204 | +$9.6K | 76% of 405 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems$337K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Reps$19K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Dems$17K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, Reps$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x13801c62dcf3110b19332d1c4b53dac516557325-1792492508793, with $2.5K on it, $2.2K lifetime profit over 135 markets (59% won). The largest No holder is 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495, with $1.7K on it, $325K lifetime profit over 11,735 markets (22% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 5, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 5, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.