Who's betting on “Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?”?
Sports · $58K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $58K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
73% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
163 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 162 of them. The largest Yes holder is elmcap2, with $6.0K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,083 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is BobbyBakedBeans, with $148 on it, $24K lifetime profit over 4,229 markets (41% won).
- Smart money share
- 73%
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 47% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 68
- Money on it
- $713
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| elmcap2whale | $6.0K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,083 |
| aliaspopeyewhale | $1.8K | +$897 | 50% of 316 |
| usurper55 | $1.1K | -$17K | 70% of 88 |
| Robbbwhale | $1.0K | +$80K | 80% of 420 |
| Jdo99 | $967 | -$2.9K | 74% of 195 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BobbyBakedBeansnoise | $148 | +$24K | 41% of 4,229 |
| macrosteaks | $109 | -$6.8K | 65% of 2,292 |
| yatata | $92 | -$1.9K | 46% of 434 |
| Rex416whale | $51 | +$36K | 56% of 1,683 |
| GUINESS123 | $40 | -$59K | 70% of 526 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
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- Max Holloway$21K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Charles Oliveira$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?
163 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 162 of them. The largest Yes holder is elmcap2, with $6.0K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,083 markets (86% won). The largest No holder is BobbyBakedBeans, with $148 on it, $24K lifetime profit over 4,229 markets (41% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 9¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $58K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 47% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 28 points. A week ago, Yes by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.