Who's betting on “Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?”?
Sports · $25K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
68% of the money on Yes and 22% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
109 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 109 of them. The largest Yes holder is abouttojump, with $9 on it, $348K lifetime loss over 201 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is zhyfacai, with $1.3K on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 224 markets (51% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $0 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 68%
- Holders
- 82
- Money on it
- $55
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 1 · $0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 22%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| abouttojump | $9 | -$348K | 53% of 201 |
| KRIS93noise | $6 | +$34K | 43% of 213 |
| planktonXDwhale | $5 | +$131K | 76% of 5,427 |
| yatata | $4 | -$1.9K | 46% of 434 |
| LornaPredictsnoise | $3 | +$30K | 29% of 10,707 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| zhyfacai | $1.3K | -$2.2K | 51% of 224 |
| mwenyawhale | $203 | +$116K | 51% of 1,058 |
| PhilHawesLoverwhale | $184 | +$15K | 51% of 414 |
| GUINESS123 | $82 | -$59K | 70% of 526 |
| cowcatwhale | $38 | +$45K | 68% of 1,058 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
- Paddy Pimblett$532K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Justin Gaethje$58K vol.Yes 91%No 9%Smart money: Yes
- Benoît Saint Denis$54K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Arman Tsarukyan$48K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: No
- Max Holloway$21K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Charles Oliveira$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026? →
Other big sports markets
- Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?$35M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$7.3M vol.Yes 71%No 29%Smart money: No
- Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$7.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$6.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$6.3M vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.8M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?$5.8M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$5.8M vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?
109 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 109 of them. The largest Yes holder is abouttojump, with $9 on it, $348K lifetime loss over 201 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is zhyfacai, with $1.3K on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 224 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 22% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.