Who's betting on “Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $49K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 656 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 44% 329 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 41% 327 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
44% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
Who holds it
656 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 656 of them. The largest Yes holder is rocky42009, with $10 on it, $6.9K lifetime loss over 1,050 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is ineedmassage, with $318 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 232 markets (72% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $118 on No.
- Holders
- 329
- Money on it
- $159
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 327
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 2 · $118
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$159 on it
- 1rocky4200952% won of 1,050$10−$6.9K lifetime
- 2vitalitytens58% won of 205$7−$737 lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$7+$255K lifetime
- 40xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$5+$334K lifetime
- 5b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.98% won of 3,362 · whale$5+$22K lifetime
No$4.4K on it
- 1ineedmassage72% won of 232 · whale$318+$20K lifetime
- 2crossx76% won of 173$298−$4.7K lifetime
- 3macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$193−$8.2K lifetime
- 4TheOne77793% won of 381 · sniper$116+$16K lifetime
- 5bananabreakfast48% won of 2,392 · balanced$101+$5.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
9 more- Austria$173K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Germany$130K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- New Zealand$125K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Belgium$80K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- The Netherlands$63K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- Greece$47K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- Finland$39K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- Italy$28K vol.Yes 8%No 93%Smart money split
- United States$28K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?"?
656 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 656 of them. The largest Yes holder is rocky42009, with $10 on it, $6.9K lifetime loss over 1,050 markets (52% won). The largest No holder is ineedmassage, with $318 on it, $20K lifetime profit over 232 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
44% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.