Who's betting on “Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?”?
Politics · $240K volume · Ends October 25, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $240K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 25, 2026.
29% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points.
178 wallets hold a position worth $110K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 177 of them. The largest Yes holder is AdreanS, with $2.0K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is tetrase, with $35K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $246 on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $7.8K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 29%
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $2.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 1 · $7.8K
- Smart money share
- 78% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 130
- Money on it
- $108K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $246
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdreanS | $2.0K | +$0 | - |
| CryptoVagabondwhale | $709 | +$199K | 62% of 34 |
| donthackmenoise | $24 | +$907K | 29% of 69,634 |
| AJSVwhale | $21 | +$218K | 41% of 102,701 |
| BabyGrootwhale | $19 | +$56K | 68% of 743 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $35K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| anoin123 | $18K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| 0xc8b9…b836whale | $18K | +$297K | 63% of 520 |
| 1walruswhale | $7.9K | +$38K | 60% of 1,259 |
| viniiwhale | $7.8K | +$160K | 63% of 1,752 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Gyurov 20-30%$326K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Gyurov 30%+$144K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Iotova 10-20%$118K vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: Yes
- Iotova 20-30%$86K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: Yes
- Iotova <10%$77K vol.Yes 26%No 74%Smart money: Yes
- Iotova 30-40%$68K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Gyurov <10%$61K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Gyurov 10-20%$18K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?"?
178 wallets hold a position worth $110K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 177 of them. The largest Yes holder is AdreanS, with $2.0K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is tetrase, with $35K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $240K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 25, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Yes and 78% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 50 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 51 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 25, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on Yes ($7.8K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.