Who's betting on “Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $41K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.5K by 63 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 30 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 32 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
Who holds it
63 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is BrownBees, with $281 on it, $69K lifetime profit over 130 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is SteviaDaddy, with $1.8K on it, $3.0K lifetime profit over 101 markets (66% won).
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $494
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
- Holders
- 33
- Money on it
- $5.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$494 on it
- 1BrownBees69% won of 130 · whale$281+$69K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$127+$334K lifetime
- 30x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks1374% won of 303 · balanced$17+$11K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$11−$485K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$10+$27K lifetime
No$5.0K on it
- 1SteviaDaddy66% won of 101 · balanced$1.8K+$3.0K lifetime
- 2Djibooty53% won of 236 · whale$1.8K+$1.7K lifetime
- 32Sherlock75% won of 67 · balanced$510+$4.7K lifetime
- 4Mithrandir.90% won of 556 · whale$246+$11K lifetime
- 5iutwpfal53% won of 362 · whale$92+$97K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?"?
63 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 62 of them. The largest Yes holder is BrownBees, with $281 on it, $69K lifetime profit over 130 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is SteviaDaddy, with $1.8K on it, $3.0K lifetime profit over 101 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $41K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 11 points. A week ago, No by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.