Who's betting on “Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 68% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $21K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.8K by 86 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 59% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 68% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 6¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
59% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
Who holds it
86 wallets hold a position worth $5.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is qianyi2026, with $1.6K on it, $375 lifetime profit over 278 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $29 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $5.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $95
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.7K on it
- 1qianyi202672% won of 278 · balanced$1.6K+$375 lifetime
- 20xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C1182-176094584678764% won of 171 · balanced$626+$10K lifetime
- 3balthazar53% won of 52,414 · whale$585+$1.2M lifetime
- 4bmtr63% won of 232 · balanced$541+$16K lifetime
- 5X-Rabbit.Sezu66% won of 443 · whale$416+$35K lifetime
No$95 on it
- 1SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$29+$203K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$11−$485K lifetime
- 3JAMJAMJAM497% won of 835 · whale$9+$93K lifetime
- 4sunbeam210486% won of 56$6−$29 lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,242 · noise$6+$255K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in this event
1 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?"?
86 wallets hold a position worth $5.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is qianyi2026, with $1.6K on it, $375 lifetime profit over 278 markets (72% won). The largest No holder is SnapElectionAvoider, with $29 on it, $203K lifetime profit over 2,239 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 95¢ and No at 6¢, a 95% implied chance of Yes. $21K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 68% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.