Who's betting on “Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $40K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.5K by 83 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 47 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
83 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 83 of them. The largest Yes holder is grinder1011, with $80 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 519 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is KiruaTrading, with $896 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 501 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $119
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$119 on it
- 1grinder101147% won of 519 · whale$80+$11K lifetime
- 2balthazar53% won of 52,570 · whale$9+$1.2M lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$6+$255K lifetime
- 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,896 · noise$3+$28K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$3+$325K lifetime
No$1.3K on it
- 1KiruaTrading64% won of 501 · whale$896+$21K lifetime
- 2Mustafalafel80% won of 271 · whale$73+$45K lifetime
- 3GirlOnFire70% won of 198 · balanced$49+$1.1K lifetime
- 4Mithrandir.90% won of 556 · whale$39+$11K lifetime
- 5pppnn34% won of 8,114$34−$79K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
1 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$457K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
83 wallets hold a position worth $1.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 83 of them. The largest Yes holder is grinder1011, with $80 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 519 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is KiruaTrading, with $896 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 501 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $40K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.