Who's betting on “Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $105K traded all time
- Held now
- $25K by 204 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 103 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 51% 101 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $105K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
204 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 204 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wojtek, with $233 on it, $55K lifetime profit over 229 markets (15% won). The largest No holder is th2, with $9.4K on it, $85K lifetime loss over 205 markets (70% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.8K on No.
- Holders
- 103
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.8K
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1Wojtek15% won of 229 · noise$233+$55K lifetime
- 20x6Ce2Bbb2466D3Ec2e1Ab169413f54aCC77d6937c-176600198485243% won of 117$226−$944 lifetime
- 3aenews273% won of 1,134 · whale$194+$2.4M lifetime
- 4Jamieamillsno record yet$182−$13 lifetime
- 5Donintello75% won of 138 · balanced$156+$1.2K lifetime
No$23K on it
- 1th270% won of 205$9.4K−$85K lifetime
- 2BTCGambler24785% won of 325 · whale$2.3K+$392K lifetime
- 3Ethan9999961% won of 69 · balanced$1.9K+$2.6K lifetime
- 4xcaiox84% won of 254 · sniper$1.8K+$13K lifetime
- 5zabeths94% won of 63$720−$186 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
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- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?"?
204 wallets hold a position worth $25K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 204 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wojtek, with $233 on it, $55K lifetime profit over 229 markets (15% won). The largest No holder is th2, with $9.4K on it, $85K lifetime loss over 205 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $105K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.