Who's betting on “Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $85K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 167 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 51% 107 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 60 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $85K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
51% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
Who holds it
167 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 167 of them. The largest Yes holder is chito9, with $222 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $1.8K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $341 on No.
- Holders
- 107
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 60
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 1 · $341
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.7K on it
- 1chito9no record yet$222+$0 lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$216+$334K lifetime
- 3Donintello75% won of 138 · balanced$162+$1.2K lifetime
- 4HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$74+$325K lifetime
- 5DistilledAppleJuice90% won of 42$72−$389 lifetime
No$9.4K on it
- 1ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$1.8K+$313K lifetime
- 2Investnow39% won of 343$1.4K−$66K lifetime
- 3StoneMarble50% won of 44 · noise$1.4K+$33K lifetime
- 4lamyk59% won of 320 · balanced$1.2K+$20K lifetime
- 50x9b85bB85b1255918e956046dBd127c431Df31259-177304719836679% won of 107 · balanced$1.0K+$1.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
1 moreOther big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$925K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: Yes
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$897K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$885K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$456K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?"?
167 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 167 of them. The largest Yes holder is chito9, with $222 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $1.8K on it, $313K lifetime profit over 4,063 markets (45% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $85K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.