Who's betting on “Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 99% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 20 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.3K by 48 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 99% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 76 points. A week ago, Yes by 75 points.
Who holds it
48 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is molodoyy, with $78 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 643 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is endoption, with $4.8K on it, $68 lifetime profit over 205 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $370
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 99%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$370 on it
- 1molodoyy50% won of 643 · whale$78+$46K lifetime
- 2totti8281% won of 100 · balanced$58+$1.6K lifetime
- 3jozeslemsek61% won of 410 · whale$35+$2.6K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,324 · noise$28+$254K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$27+$28K lifetime
No$4.9K on it
- 1endoption100% won of 205 · grinder$4.8K+$68 lifetime
- 2k1ngslayer83% won of 237 · balanced$93+$2.6K lifetime
- 3pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,725$26−$320K lifetime
- 4lissartter56% won of 2,997$19−$287K lifetime
- 5Fluo64% won of 513$8−$5.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Kimi K4 released by…?
1 moreOther big tech markets
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- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
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- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?"?
48 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 48 of them. The largest Yes holder is molodoyy, with $78 on it, $46K lifetime profit over 643 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is endoption, with $4.8K on it, $68 lifetime profit over 205 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 99% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 76 points. A week ago, Yes by 75 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.