Who's betting on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 43 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $295K traded all time
- Held now
- $54K by 198 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 44% 82 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 116 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $295K has been traded on it.
The smart money
44% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
Who holds it
198 wallets hold a position worth $54K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 198 of them.
- Holders
- 82
- Money on it
- $27
- Holders' win rate
- 35%
- Holders
- 116
- Money on it
- $54K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
2 more- December 31$279K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$65K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?"?
198 wallets hold a position worth $54K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 198 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?"?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $295K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
44% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 43 points.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved No. $295K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.