Who's betting on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $279K traded all time
- Held now
- $50K by 251 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 41% 138 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 112 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $279K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
41% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
Who holds it
251 wallets hold a position worth $50K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 250 of them. The largest Yes holder is yikaiz, with $388 on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 15 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $12K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,007 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $94 on Yes.
- Holders
- 138
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 2 · $94
- Holders
- 113
- Money on it
- $49K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.9K on it
- 1yikaiz33% won of 15$388−$2.2K lifetime
- 2machine32133% won of 43$379−$19K lifetime
- 3RememberAmalek73% won of 1,128 · whale$274+$819K lifetime
- 4mindeirs65% won of 74$108−$73K lifetime
- 5groth77% won of 495 · sniper$91+$146K lifetime
No$49K on it
- 1denizz66% won of 1,007 · whale$12K+$2.3M lifetime
- 2MEPP62% won of 1,084 · whale$7.4K+$559K lifetime
- 3alwaysOn75% won of 1,025 · whale$6.5K+$28K lifetime
- 4Mithrandiric58% won of 101$4.9K−$5.3K lifetime
- 5Kevindoto79% won of 724 · whale$4.8K+$563K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
2 more- December 31, 2027$65K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$295K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?"?
251 wallets hold a position worth $50K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 250 of them. The largest Yes holder is yikaiz, with $388 on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 15 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is denizz, with $12K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,007 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $279K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.