Who's betting on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 37 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $65K traded all time
- Held now
- $481 by 26 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 9 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 28% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points.
Who holds it
26 wallets hold a position worth $481 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 26 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $68 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,234 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is crypto-basenji, with $65 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 409 markets (47% won).
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $202
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $279
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$202 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,234 · noise$68+$255K lifetime
- 20x279C5de35108AFC30b99f09e595555B428E92b82-177788278671557% won of 416 · whale$62+$6.3K lifetime
- 3fuckpolymarket90% won of 21$57−$74 lifetime
- 4niluu29% won of 75$12−$69 lifetime
- 5mars-1229% won of 279$4−$526 lifetime
No$279 on it
- 1crypto-basenji47% won of 409 · whale$65+$3.6K lifetime
- 2Basilomo80% won of 305$44−$181 lifetime
- 3Mithrandiric58% won of 101$35−$5.3K lifetime
- 4Sale272357% won of 7,530$34−$5.1K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$27−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
2 more- December 31$279K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- September 30$295K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
Other big iran markets
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.9M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.7M vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.1M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$979K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?"?
26 wallets hold a position worth $481 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 26 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $68 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,234 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is crypto-basenji, with $65 on it, $3.6K lifetime profit over 409 markets (47% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 43¢ and No at 57¢, a 57% implied chance of No. $65K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 37 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.