Who's betting on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?”?
Iran · $595K volume · Ends October 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $595K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
90% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
411 wallets hold a position worth $113K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 411 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $1.6K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $29K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.3K on No.
- Smart money share
- 90%
- Holders
- 147
- Money on it
- $5.6K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 62% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 264
- Money on it
- $107K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $1.6K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| 881112whale | $653 | +$442K | 60% of 1,101 |
| wan123whale | $460 | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| OldZzwhale | $389 | +$10K | 66% of 176 |
| MEPPwhale | $345 | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | $29K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| Udonsanwhale | $26K | +$65K | 79% of 857 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $5.6K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| 080526 | $4.5K | +$527 | 89% of 9 |
| Kris-Futurebalanced | $4.0K | +$23K | 93% of 54 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
- November 30$151K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$98K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: No
- September 30$829K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 40%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?"?
411 wallets hold a position worth $113K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 411 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $1.6K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $29K on it, $4.9M lifetime loss over 1,429 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $595K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
90% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 28 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.