Who's betting on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?”?
Iran · $155K volume · Ends December 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
94% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
115 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is OpenSourceIntel, with $1.4K on it, $36K lifetime profit over 343 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is zxdfbdfgngcxv, with $1.4K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 1,171 markets (77% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 94% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 79% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 72
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenSourceIntelnoise | $1.4K | +$36K | 36% of 343 |
| paddaawhale | $721 | +$279K | 58% of 1,425 |
| peterfromfamilyguywhale | $661 | +$47K | 56% of 303 |
| cashywhale | $412 | +$557K | 74% of 1,025 |
| Newshoundwhale | $172 | +$67K | 72% of 1,043 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| zxdfbdfgngcxvwhale | $1.4K | +$97K | 77% of 1,171 |
| Udonsanwhale | $1.4K | +$65K | 79% of 857 |
| LehmanBrother2.0 | $1.0K | +$1.6K | 73% of 15 |
| Haradwaith | $791 | -$334K | 50% of 45,650 |
| RdogTest | $767 | +$1.3K | 92% of 13 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
- October 31$595K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- December 31$103K vol.Yes 35%No 66%Smart money split
- September 30$829K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 87%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?"?
115 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 115 of them. The largest Yes holder is OpenSourceIntel, with $1.4K on it, $36K lifetime profit over 343 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is zxdfbdfgngcxv, with $1.4K on it, $97K lifetime profit over 1,171 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 26¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $155K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.