Who's betting on “Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?”?
Iran · $103K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $103K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
91% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
106 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $3.0K on it, $279K lifetime profit over 1,425 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is LehmanBrother2.0, with $2.4K on it, $1.6K lifetime profit over 15 markets (73% won).
- Smart money share
- 91% ▲ 18 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 63
- Money on it
- $5.3K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 88% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $10K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| paddaawhale | $3.0K | +$279K | 58% of 1,425 |
| OkieDokiePeonwhale | $476 | +$25K | 43% of 1,302 |
| 0xaa57…3991 | $297 | - | - |
| CT-testbalanced | $269 | +$621 | 53% of 161 |
| StarMasterwhale | $173 | +$93K | 54% of 835 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LehmanBrother2.0 | $2.4K | +$1.6K | 73% of 15 |
| peterfromfamilyguywhale | $1.8K | +$47K | 56% of 303 |
| 080526 | $1.4K | +$527 | 89% of 9 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $859 | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| MrMelonHeadwhale | $665 | +$9.0K | 66% of 356 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
- October 31$595K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- November 30$151K vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money: Yes
- September 30$829K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Who's betting on Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? →
Other big iran markets
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$3.1M vol.Yes 87%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$2.6M vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$2.0M vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: No
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 41%No 60%Smart money: Yes
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$1.2M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$937K vol.Yes 9%No 92%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?"?
106 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 105 of them. The largest Yes holder is paddaa, with $3.0K on it, $279K lifetime profit over 1,425 markets (58% won). The largest No holder is LehmanBrother2.0, with $2.4K on it, $1.6K lifetime profit over 15 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 35¢ and No at 66¢, a 66% implied chance of No. $103K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 18 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.