Who's betting on “Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 69% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $461 by 19 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 44% 10 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 69% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 89¢ and No at 12¢, an 89% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
The smart money
44% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points.
Who holds it
19 wallets hold a position worth $461 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 19 of them. The largest Yes holder is yoyobb2018, with $191 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss over 1,049 markets (78% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $31 on it, $257K lifetime profit over 124,069 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $408
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $53
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$408 on it
- 1yoyobb201878% won of 1,049$191−$1.7K lifetime
- 2NeevS87% won of 252 · grinder$89+$386 lifetime
- 30xc8C97fFDB0f3a1620E67e2C48A6239c97666a94a-178337325505957% won of 167 · balanced$62+$263 lifetime
- 4gndndaa53% won of 30$22−$48 lifetime
- 5S88872% won of 375 · whale$18+$14K lifetime
No$53 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 124,069 · noise$31+$257K lifetime
- 2Podublin55% won of 136$6−$2.0K lifetime
- 3planktonXD76% won of 6,402 · whale$5+$132K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$3−$485K lifetime
- 5V4grant37% won of 788$2−$493 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Claude 6 released by...?
2 more- March 31, 2027$21K vol.Yes 37%No 63%Smart money: No
- June 30, 2027$13K vol.Yes 73%No 28%Smart money: Yes
Other big tech markets
- Human moon landing in 2026?$2.0M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
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- GTA 6 launch postponed again?$898K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$889K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$499K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$462K vol.Yes 52%No 49%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?"?
19 wallets hold a position worth $461 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 19 of them. The largest Yes holder is yoyobb2018, with $191 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss over 1,049 markets (78% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $31 on it, $257K lifetime profit over 124,069 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 89¢ and No at 12¢, an 89% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
44% of the money on Yes and 69% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.