Who's betting on “Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $39K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.0K by 29 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 53% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 53% 12 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
53% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
Who holds it
29 wallets hold a position worth $6.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is lissartter, with $33 on it, $287K lifetime loss over 2,997 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $1.9K on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,147 markets (74% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $137
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $5.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$137 on it
- 1lissartter56% won of 2,997$33−$287K lifetime
- 2Anjun67% won of 1,886 · whale$33+$801K lifetime
- 3ACara66% won of 370 · whale$12+$45K lifetime
- 4tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$10−$217K lifetime
- 5jozeslemsek61% won of 410 · whale$9+$2.6K lifetime
No$5.8K on it
- 1DEGENKHAN74% won of 1,147 · whale$1.9K+$104K lifetime
- 2mikekb100% won of 2$1.0K−$5 lifetime
- 3qwertyyyy88% won of 89$920−$430 lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$787−$378K lifetime
- 50xDafd27c48807E5f5A576BD8a3854342C47A65FFb-175812516241386% won of 303 · grinder$659+$7.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Anthropic lab leak by...?
1 moreOther big tech markets
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- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$888K vol.Yes 98%No 2%Smart money: Yes
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?$596K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?$498K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?$495K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money split
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$459K vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money split
Questions
Who is betting on "Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?"?
29 wallets hold a position worth $6.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is lissartter, with $33 on it, $287K lifetime loss over 2,997 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is DEGENKHAN, with $1.9K on it, $104K lifetime profit over 1,147 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $39K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 17 points. A week ago, No by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.